Alberta Immigrant Nominee Program – What does the Crystal Ball Predict for 2016?

I went to the source - Brad Trefan, Managing Director of the AINP

Don’t listen to this Podcast before you read the blog I released yesterday, April 13, 2016 entitled: Alberta Immigrant Nominee Program – How did we get here? What every Temporary Foreign Worker must know before applying? This blog will give you essential background information to prepare you for the insights I’m going to share regarding the Alberta Immigrant Nominee Program.


This past month, I had the opportunity to attend a lunch presentation Brad Trefan gave to our Canadian Bar Association’s local immigration section in Calgary.  I’ll share my Top 10 (rather 9) AINP Highlights from his presentation and share my thoughts on what this means for anyone seeking to apply for PR status in Canada through the AINP.

Top 9 AINP Highlights for 2016 thanks to Brad Trefan, Managing Director:

1.    Current Inventories

2.   Top 10 occupations applying to the AINP

4.   [yes….I missed #3] Why are the AINP refusal rates so high?

5.   What if you lose your job after receiving the nomination?

6.   Certificate wastage – why is it so dang high?

7.   IRCC challenging the AINP nomination.

8.  Standardization of the AINP program.

9.   AINP Participation in Express Entry

10.  Expect the AINP to close again in 2016


[Tweet “What’s up with the Alberta Immigrant Nominee Program in 2016“]

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Read the Transcript

You can read additional notes for this episode, [spoiler]

This Episode continue forward on the foundation I laid with a blog I wrote yesterday and posted on the Canadian Immigration Podcast website regarding the Alberta Immigrant Nominee Program.

It’s entitled: “Alberta Immigrant Nominee Program – How did we get here?

What every Temporary Foreign Worker must know before applying!

This blog will give you a little bit of a foundation for what I am going to share in the Podcast today.

In the blog I covered a brief history of how the AINP has been somewhat of a love hate relationship for TFWs and their legal counsel. I cover the ups and downs of the program over the past 10 years and really lead up to what I am going to be talking about today.

In this Episode of the Canadian Immigration Podcast, I am going to be sharing some insight on where the AINP is headed for this year and what every TFW needs to know before risking their future in Canada on a very volatile program.

But before I get to this Episode I’d like to share a few experiences I had attending the CBA’s National Immigration Conference in Vancouver, British Columbia this past weekend.

  1. Asked to speak on Express Entry. Had the privilege of doing so with some very good friends:
  • Marina Sedai – Immigration Lawyer in B.C.
  • Kevin Zemp – Immigration Lawyer practicing in Calgary
    • Past Chair of our National Immigration Law Section
  • John Acheson – Assistant Director, Permanent Resident Program Delivery, IRCC
    • Operations side of things – the nuts and bolts (portal issues)
  • Philip Somogyvari – Director – Express Entry Policy – IRCC
    • 10,000 foot level policy
      • discussions of changes to EE (crossing my fingers):
        • CRS points for candidates with family in Canada
        • CRS points of international students (CDN studies)
  1. IRCC Minsiter John McCallum spoke to us and shared a lot of insight into where the program is going. As a staunch conservative, I must admit that I have felt quite conflicted with because I actually like Minister McCallum. In an upcoming blog or podcast, I am going to share some of the highlights from that speech.

However, if you want to go back in time and catch a snapshot of what the Minister shared and other insights from the various panels I attended, connect with me on Twitter because I tweeted continuously sharing significant insights as I listened to the Minister in real time and as I attended other sessions presented by my fellow CBA Immigration section colleagues. My Twitter handle is simply @MarkHolthe.

Eventually I am going to get that blog or podcast out. If you have a preference, just send me comment on the CIP website, or connect with me on any of the various social media platforms I frequent (facebook, LinkedIn etc.). You can also track me down on my firm website:

Insights on the Alberta Immigrant Nominee Program for 2016 – Brad Trefan, Managing Director

This past month, I had the opportunity to attend a lunch presentation Brad Trefan gave to our Canadian Bar Association’s local immigration section in Calgary.  I’ll share a few highlights from his presentation and then at the end of this blog share my thoughts on what this means for anyone seeking to apply for PR status in Canada through the AINP.

  1. Inventories – The AINP had ballooned to 9000 applications in August 2015 when the program was suspended. This number was reduced to 4700 by the time the program was reopened on January 27, 2016. As of March 23, 2016, the current application quota is sitting at 6000 applications. The AINP receives approximately 40 new applications daily.

[INSIGHT: Get your application filed as quickly as possible because the program will most certainly be suspended as applications continue to flood into the program. If 9000 was the trigger for suspending the program last year, you can be almost certain this number will be the tipping point this year. You can track the processing of applications on the AINP website:

Application Processing and Inventory– the AINP does not follow a first in first out processing policy across all streams. Instead of lumping all candidates into the same pool and processing on this basis, instead 20 processing officers spread out among the industry streams, which results in drastically different processing times depending upon the number of applicants in the queue.. If one has no applications, then an officer will shift to another streams.

Here is a breakdown of the volume of applications and corresponding processing times by industry stream:

Employer Driven Streams

Food and Beverage Processing Industry        Over 90           Feb 9 – 10, 2016

Foodservices Industry (Pilot Project)              Over 110         February 1 – 10, 2016

Hotel & Lodging Industry                                Over 80           February 9 – 10, 2016

International Graduate Category                   Over 2,550      June 2, 2014, and February 10, 2016

Manufacturing Industry                                  Over 40           February 4 – 10, 2016

Skilled Worker Category                                 Over 2,000      June 24, 2014, and Feb 10, 2016

Trucking Industry                                            Over 80           February 9 – 10, 2016

Strategic Recruitment Stream (SRS)

Compulsory & Optional Trades Category       Over 110         February 2 – 10, 2016

Engineering Occupations Category                Over 90           February 2 – 10, 2016

Post-Graduate Worker Category                    Over 750         January 28, 2016, and Feb 10, 2016

  1. Top 10 Occupations:
  • 6311 – Food Service Supervisors
  • 6211 – Retail Sales Supervisors
  • 6315 – Cleaning Supervisors
  • 7511 – Transport Truck Drivers
  • 6421 – Retail Salespersons
  • 0621 – Retail and Wholesale Trade Managers
  • 7284 – Plasterers, Drywall Installers and Finishers and Lathers
  • 0631 – Restaurant and Food Services Managers
  • 1311 – Accounting Technicians and Bookkeepers
  • 1241 – Administrative Assistants

What we have learned from these statistics is that the worst possible candidate for the AINP is an international student working as a food service supervisor

  1. High AINP Application Decline Rate – over 50% of AINP applications are rejected. The main reasons are that:
  • Candidate no longer has a work permit (can’t rely on nomination to get WP)
  • Down turn in economy, so employee has lost their job (may still hold a valid work permit)
  1. Losing a Job after the AINP nomination has been issued

– could be a problem

– must be able to demonstrate the ability to economically establish in Alberta

So what does an AINP officer do when you lose your job while APR is in process – if lose job officers have 2 weeks to work with applicant to defend the nomination with IRCC.

AINP Looking to see if the applicant is making an effort to maintain employment AND officers will also look at occupational outlooks from an economic perspective.

If an occupation has week prospects, then likely chances are not great that the AINP will allow the APR to go forward. However, if job is in an area of high demand, than much more likely AINP will continue to support the nomination.

However, if applicant is changing employers and going from a skilled , to a semi-skilled position, this could be a problem. However, if the demotion is within the same industry, there may be some leniency.

  • IRCC is turning applications down for people that don’t have worry

-slight increase in fraud, but just reflects people really want to stay – despite economic downturn

  1. High Degree of certificate wastage


Applicants are also applying under EE

– EE get’s approved and then AINP nomination is wasted.

-Federal Gov’t doesn’t let the AINP re-use the certificates

-having discussions to get around this with Gov’t

  1. IRCC challenging the nominations

– must demonstrate ability to economically  establish in the Province of Alberta

So if person is unemployed, how can AINP defend this situation if nomination issued 7 months and the person does not have a job

  1. Standardization of the AINP program in process

Modernization of data base

Proposals before minister on how they can better streamline the application process

Looking at online application forms – shooting for this to happen by the end of the year (2016) or 2017

  1. AINP Participation in Express Entry

–still looking at this and maybe 2017 enter EE pool.

-however, no enhanced allocation to the 5500, so this will impact in participation in EE

-if participate in EE without an increase to the 5500 allocation total, semi-skilled categories would lose access to PR. AINP is only pathway to PR for low skill workers. If a new EE category was created, then the semi-skill categories would have to give up some of their quota to create the new, skilled worker only, EE AINP stream.

Brad stated that Ideally – the AINP would like to get enhanced allocation from Feds before participating in EE.

  1. Expect the AINP to close again in 2016

Yes, gaining 40 applications per day, so is very likely we will have a pause.

So why a General pause versus only closing select industry streams?

Brad Trefan stated it’s the most fair solution because everyone is affected equally.



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